How to Win The Game of YouTube
How to Win The Game of YouTube in 2024
The key to winning the YouTube game in 2024 is not authenticity, ideation, hacking trends, or anything else. It’s actually much simpler and makes perfect sense. Let me explain.
YouTube is cyclical and has constant content cycles that repeat every few years; if you know what the next cycle is, you can reliably time the market and create that type of content that has high demand.
In 2024, the type of content that has taken over is the “authenticity” style. This style is directly related to the “authenticity” style of content produced 8-10 years ago.
If you had paid attention to the trends and mapped out the YouTube cycles, you could have really predicted this trend to a pretty good extent.
So, that being said, how can you take advantage of YouTube’s Cycles?
YouTube’s Cycles.
To answer that question lets break down the cycles of YouTube.
2005-2008 - Discovery / Raw
This was a period of time when people discovered YouTube and figured out what it was. This was most akin to the nebula in space, with no form, no direction, just existence. Everything in this period was raw and authentic. (this does not count into the modern cycle)
2009-2011 Democratization / Comedy / Authentic
This was when we had the first set of real “YouTubers,” It was also the moment when creating content became democratized; anyone could make something. In addition to that this is where we see comedy make a start. This is due to the fact most people were making similar styles of content, and the way to stand out was to be funny by leveraging their personalities. It was an authentic era of YouTube, just people being themselves.
Notable creators in this era were:
- Jenna marbles
- RayWilliamJohnson
- nigahiga
- Philip DeFranco
- Shane Dawson
2011-2013 Sketch Comedy
This is the natural evolution of the 2010-2011 trends of comedy. The final form of the medium is for some time until we get to gaming YouTubers. This is an era where the first YouTube “memes” are generated and where we see massive break out videos.
Notable Creators of this era were:
- Smosh
- Good mythical morning
- Epic rap battles
- Epic meal time
2013-2015 High-Quality Content Emerges
This is the natural progression of sketch comedy. This is where the inception of higher-quality channels starts to form. We see channels dedicated to VFX, storytelling, and invoicing on YouTube. It’s more or less the brain explosion where YouTube becomes mainstream to be a user of it. It’s small compared to today, but at this time, it’s massive. It is what laid the groundwork for what everyone does today. The best way I can describe it is it sucked when you missed an upload from your favorite creator. It’s what I would define as the first true era of YouTube, and some consider it the golden age.
Notable Creators of this era were:
- Rocket Jump
- Smosh
- The Fine Brothers
- RackaRacka
- IdubzTV
2013-2015 - Gaming / Authenticity
During this period, we saw the rapid rise of gaming content due to the Democratization prior. Anyone who had a computer or $100 for a capture card could become a YouTuber. This is where legends were minted or reached a stage of maturity that got mainstream recognition. Outside of this, we see authenticity as a strong foothold. This was larger due to the maturing of comedy, and people realized they could just be themselves and get views instead of shock value bits or trying to stand out in other ways. (first actual signal in the cycle)
Notable Creators of this era were:
- Pewdiepie
- Markiplier
- Jackscepticeye
- CaptainSparklez
2016-2018 - Vlogs / Entertainment
This was the “golden” age of YouTube. This was when vlogging took off, and the YouTube poster child was Casey Neistat. This style was authentic, funny, and raw yet entertaining. If you had a camera, there's a chance you made at least 1 Vlog. In addition to that, people like Logan Paul and others were trying to up the entertainment game with not only vlogs but experiences. (second signal in the cycle)
Notable Creators of this era were:
- Casey Neistat
- Logan Paul and Jake Paul
- David Dobrik
- KSI
- Emma Chamberlain
2019-2020 - Covid, Gaming and Comedy…
This period was hallmarked by COVID-19. None of this really matters in the context of much. If there was a defining trend of this era its 4 fold. The first is a podcast. There literally was nothing to do for 3 months, so podcasts became a go-to. Outside of this short form, content took off due to TikTok, Shorts, IG reals, and more. We also see a surge in views EVERYWHERE. YouTube was just printing views. The real exciting stuff outside of content consumption modalities was the essence of videos. We saw a biblical rise in gaming creators because it is the most prevalent activity. Outside of that, we see a jump in comedic videos as a way to cope with the strange conditions enforced upon the world.
Notable Creators of this era were:
- Dream
- Corpse Husband
- Ninja
- The Try Guys
2021-2023 - Beastification
A prevalent trend is that creators incorporate the ADHD Mr. Beast style of editing into all of their content. This is likely (looking back on it) a direct result of attention spans shrinking on average due to short-form content the 2 years prior. Another strange outcome that stems from the 2 years prior is creators were doing things bigger and better. This is because while YouTube was printing views, most economies around the world were printing dollars, meaning people had more to spend, and advertisers were paying more for impressions. This led to creators sitting on war chests of money to deploy as restrictions loosened.
Notable Creators of this era were:
- Mr Beast
- Ryan Trahan
- iShowSpeed
- Sidemen
2024-2025 - Authenticity/Raw/Vlogs/Story Telling.
This is where we see massive videos with an emphasis on storytelling come to the forefront. The reason for this is due to the market share TV is taking up, where people are more likely to watch for longer and be more invested in videos. The mass adoption of TV viewership % likely is a direct result of covid-19 and people being trapped inside with nothing to do but consume. Once they consumed everything on streaming services, they got invested in YouTubers, and its ever evolving eco system.
Something we should address is that YouTube isn’t 1:1 when it comes to its cycles. Some parts of the past cycle will always permeate into the current cycle, and more than that, we also see core components of past cycles just get fully integrated across YouTube.
In this case, we see a new age of Authenticity created on the scene. There have always been new authenticity creators here and there, but we see a massive wave this year. With people like Sam Sulek for fitness and people like Charlie Morgan for businesses. Most of these authentic creators are also raw creators. its good to note that authenticity =/= raw.
We also do a maturity of the storytelling focus and an interest in vlogs. This is likely due to the fact you can pair storytelling with vlogs quite well. The best example of this is the “coming of age” YouTubers. These creators blend the experience of being 17-24 and how they navigate life. This is likely a result of growing up watching Vloggers when they were in their early teens and how entertainment YouTubers navigated a young life.
So what’s next?
2025-2027 - Comedy / Entertainment / Documentaries / Democratization
My main assumption is we see a new wave of comedy creators. This will likely be a direct result of short-form creators coming over. This will echo the mass vine exodus in 2015-2016.
The short-form creators who jump ship will bring new forms of comedy and entertainment. I also think it’s likely that a new crop of creators relying on comedy will naturally rise anyway as the top end of YouTube becomes hyper-competitive and creators look for interesting ways to stand out and get ahead.
Lastly, there is a high chance that one of the default types of videos becomes the most prevalent: documentaries. This is due to the mass maturity of storytelling, which is a core component of documents. Due to the high TV watch time percentage, it's only a matter of time until people optimize it. Another big reason for this is the Democratization of content. We have a full generation who grew up on YouTube. They want to be a crater that has never been bigger, and this is a good time for people to start.
I could stop here but I'm going to get a bit crazy and predict another cycle.
2027-2029 - VR / Gaming / Discovery
I have high conviction that VR / AR will become the next main content consumption modality. When that happens, the biggest interest will be gaming. This will go hand in hand as they both get better.
Due to a new modality (much like short-form content in 2019-2020), We will see a phase of discovery based on the modality type. We will also see the maturity of the OG VR creators of today as they become superstars mirroring the rise of PewDiePie, Markiplier and Jacksepticeye in the past.
Can we predict the cycle after this? We can, but it becomes much more difficult, but here we go.
2030-2033 - Films / Vlogs / Serialized Content
We will likely see the old guard go out with a bang and produce films and release them on YouTube. At the same time, we will see those who have mastered storytelling and docs will produce short films that will win awards and they will be native to YouTube.
Vlogs will make a massive comeback as well as people want something new and fresh. This will likely be it, and it will be in stark contrast to the films or will serve as a not-too-distant cousin based on the creator.
We will also see serialized storytelling content. Pieces of content that that is part of a series but are stand-alone pieces. Right now the best example of this is Mr Beast and Dhar Mann. Interestingly enough this had already been attempted with “YouTube Originals”. This will be that but on an organic level.
These are the cycles of YouTube and how you can cope with the game by cheating and looking into the future.